BoE sees worse inflation outlook

Written By Unknown on 19 September 2012 | 18.48

Bank of England policymakers think inflation is set to slow less rapidly because of higher oil costs and possible food price rises.

Minutes from the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed that they felt inflation was unlikely to slow as it had forecast in August.

They also showed all nine MPC members voted to hold rates and not increase the programme of quantitative easing.

However, one MPC member said there was "good case" for more QE.

More stimulus?

Figures released on Tuesday showed that inflation as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to 2.5% in August, down from 2.6% in July.

Inflation is now much closer to the Bank of England's 2% target, having dropped from a peak of 5.2% in September last year.

However, the minutes from September's meeting of the MPC noted: "The rise in oil prices and the probable increase in utility and some food prices meant that the near-term outlook was for a less rapid fall in inflation than the Committee had thought at the time of its August Inflation Report projections."

All members of the MPC agreed to keep its programme of quantitative easing (QE) at £375bn.

Under QE, the Bank buys government bonds, hoping to create beneficial knock-on effects for the economy.

The latest minutes showed most members found the decision to maintain QE at the current level "straightforward".

But others felt extending it "was more likely than not to be needed in due course".

And one member said that "a good case could be made" for announcing an increase in QE immediately.

Several analysts have said they think the Bank will increase the QE programme above the current level.

Howard Archer, an analyst at IHS Global Insight, said his firm "strongly suspect" it will increase the programme by another £50bn in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Brian Hilliard of Societe Generale agreed, noting that this was the second consecutive MPC meeting at which increasing bond buying had been discussed.

"I don't think that is going to sway the majority until November, but the fact that it has been discussed two meetings in a row does point to a further expansion of QE in the November meeting," said Mr Hilliard.

19 Sep, 2012


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Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19647433#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa
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